Thursday’s first presidential debate is poised to be the most pivotal night of the 2024 campaign season. It marks the first direct confrontation between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump since their 2020 showdown. With the race neck-and-neck and less than five months before the general election, this debate is crucial in defining the narrative for the rest of the electoral season.
Mental Fitness
The debate will bring intense scrutiny to Biden’s mental fitness, as his age—81 years old—is perceived by voters as a significant weakness. The Trump campaign has exploited this by circulating viral videos suggesting Biden appears confused in public. However, Trump, at 78, is not immune to gaffes and sometimes veers into seemingly incoherent tangents. Despite being only three years younger, Trump is expected to avoid direct attacks on Biden’s age, instead labeling him as “incompetent.”
Immigration
Immigration remains a top concern for voters, with Trump amplifying fears by blaming Biden’s border policies for crimes committed by illegal immigrants. He has falsely claimed that Biden is allowing migrants into the U.S. to convert them into Democratic voters, using increasingly inflammatory rhetoric. Biden counters with recent policy moves aimed at tightening border controls and facilitating legal residency for spouses of U.S. citizens. These contrasting approaches will be a focal point of the debate.
Abortion
The abortion issue will also be in the spotlight. Trump and the Republican Party have shifted to advocating for state-level decision-making on abortion policies. This strategy allows federal lawmakers to avoid direct involvement but has drawn criticism from the Biden campaign for enabling restrictive state laws. The debate will likely highlight this ongoing policy clash.
Democracy
Biden is expected to frame Trump as a threat to democracy, emphasizing his role in the January 6 Capitol riots and his refusal to accept the 2020 election results. A new ad campaign underscores Trump’s incitement of violence on January 6. However, some polls suggest voters in battleground states trust Trump over Biden to handle threats to democracy, giving Trump an 11-point lead on the issue. Trump, in turn, accuses Biden of weaponizing the Justice Department against him, a claim lacking evidence but resonating with his base.
Economy
Economic policy will be another critical debate topic. Trump has attacked Biden over “shrinkflation” at recent rallies, while Biden’s campaign blames corporate greed for inflation. Trump’s proposal for a 10% tariff on all imports is another point of contention, with Biden’s camp arguing it would disproportionately harm low- and middle-income Americans by driving up prices.
Legal Woes
Trump’s legal troubles will undoubtedly be a key issue. The Biden campaign has capitalized on Trump’s conviction in Manhattan on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records, branding him as a “convicted criminal” in a new ad campaign. While most voters say this doesn’t change their voting intentions, it could sway independents, 21% of whom indicated in a recent Ipsos/Politico poll that the conviction makes them less likely to vote for Trump. This small yet potentially decisive group could tip the scales in a close race.
As the debate unfolds, the stakes are monumental. Both candidates must navigate their vulnerabilities while seizing the opportunity to define the electoral narrative for the months ahead. For Trump, this debate could expose weaknesses and shape his path forward in a highly contentious race.
